nevermind
nevermind
Last edited by scrooks; 10-31-2014 at 07:54 PM. Reason: Dumb question
Also I am pretty sure she was only released from NJ because they were threatening to take legal action and the state knew they would lose for essentially imprisoning her. If she hadn't protested it, she would most likely still be in the quarantine tent.
Angie
Mom to
DD- 9/09-9/09
DS- 2011 DS2- 2012 DS3- 2015 DD-2019
For those of you still citing the NY doctor- has anyone who was on the subway or in the bowling alley with him gotten ill? No. And they won't. It takes much more than a casual contact with someone who does not have a fever to get Ebola. The science does show this in multiple studies. It is not airborne. Maybe if he vomited on someone on the subway.
Also- military quarantining does not mean it is warranted or good science. I think that is a weak argument at best. There are many things the military chooses to do with soldiers that are just not practical or of benefit to population as a whole but they can do that because they are the military and you agree to that when you join.
I still think we are getting overconfident based on a very small sample size. We don't yet know if the NY doctor infected anyone as we are just arriving at the point in time when those cases would be most likely to show up (8 to 10 days post exposure). I agree that it is unlikely and hope it doesn't occur -- fortunately, the NY city health department still believes in quarantine and those with the greatest contact with him have been staying in their homes.
I mentioned the Sawyer case yesterday because he infected people who greeted him at the airport and drove with him to the hospital. That example is available because he was patient zero in Nigeria and the spread of the disease was documented. The NBC camera man has said he does not know what his exposure was. Spencer said he didn't know when he breached protocol. I agree with others that how easily the disease spreads once someone becomes symptomatic is one of the gray areas with this disease. There is research that suggests that a relatively small percentage of people have natural immunity to the disease (at least in West Africa) which may or may not be relevant to why some get the disease and others do not. I do not have a high level of confidence in the CDC -- their overconfidence in our ability to confront ebola here has already led to the infection of two nurses (and perhaps even the death of Duncan who had to wait days before properly admitted to the hospital).
I'm not a fear monger and I don't believe it will be an epidemic here. But if we continue to have an ebola case every week or two (and it looks like there is another potential case in Oregon), the chance for error increases and the likelihood of the disease affecting additional people beyond the person already infected increases.
From the AP: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...11-01-10-25-24
This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130.
"I don't think there's going to be a huge outbreak here, no," said Dr. David Relman, a professor of infectious disease, microbiology and immunology at Stanford University's medical school. "However, as best we can tell right now, it is quite possible that every major city will see at least a handful of cases."
ETA: The CDC admits Ebola can be spread by a sneeze, even if the droplets were on a door knob (up to a day before according to other sources): http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/
Last edited by Melbel; 11-01-2014 at 03:10 PM.