Why are they inciting panic?

[Clarity]

To what cause? http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/us.swine.flu.projections/index.html

[elliput]

:nodno: Because they can, and it makes $$$.

[brittone2]

If all of the pharma companies are going to pursue the R&D $$$ to get this to market, they are going to make sure there is a demand to use the product.

[Clarity]

But it's the GOVERNMENT that's putting out the report. I'd think they just wanted to scare everyone into getting vaxed, but it says that a vax may be too late. I just had a twist of fear when I saw the headline. Who wouldn't?

[writermama]

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!

Or wait, maybe not. But you should be so scared you're afraid not to watch CNN. all. day. long.


On edit: Speculation on my part. It could be that writing "Worst Case Scenarios" is somebody's job. That they do it routinely as a way to help the appropriate entities calculate their planning and response. If that is the case, and the press gets ahold of one of these reports, it should be the job of the press to report these sorts of scenarios with full context -- like, "this is the worst case, now here are some of the other projections" and details about who wrote the report and why. But no. Press is all about panic.

[Clarity]

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!

Or wait, maybe not. But you should be so scared you're afraid not to watch CNN. all. day. long.


LOL! :bighand:

[icunurse]

36,000 people/year die from the "regular" flu every year in the U.S. and that's with the yearly vaccine, anti-virals, and natural immunity (or strength of the current strain). Since H1N1 is new and can easily mutate, is already showing resistance to the current anti-virals and has a questionable vax status (will it work? will there be enough? will people get both doses?), I honestly feel relieved that it might *only* be 90,000 according to the estimates. Those numbers still don't make me want to run out and vax.

Now, if it mutates into a super-strain (think 1918 pandemic that killed >2 million people), I'll be knocking people over for the vax ;)

[ellies mom]

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!
On edit: Speculation on my part. It could be that writing "Worst Case Scenarios" is somebody's job. That they do it routinely as a way to help the appropriate entities calculate their planning and response. If that is the case, and the press gets ahold of one of these reports, it should be the job of the press to report these sorts of scenarios with full context -- like, "this is the worst case, now here are some of the other projections" and details about who wrote the report and why. But no. Press is all about panic.

:yeahthat:

Personally, I want my government thinking about and preparing for worst case scenario. I don't appreciate the press milking it for ratings though. Especially considering if it doesn't get ugly, the press is hardly going to come back and say "Oh yeah, we forgot to say that it could have been as low as 1000 people catching it."

[wellyes]

1.CNN wants you to click headlines.
2.The federal government is responsible for trying to stop epidemics and spread the word about potential hazards.

It's reasonable for the report to be written and distributed. Can you imagine if 90,000 Americans died and then word leaked about a "secret" government report that predicted it would happen?

[egoldber]

I'm not sure what the issue is? The job of the CDC is to evaluate risks to public health and develop stategies to mitigate it. It's the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. ;) (The prevention part generally gets left off.) I didn't think this headline was potentially that alarming or different from other info out there.

Personally, I think it would be irresponsible of the federal government not to let people know how bad it could be. Now if you think it's fear mongering, well, I've seen fear mongering and that article seemed pretty rational to me, I dunno.

There most certainly are people whose job it is to consider and plan for worst case scenarios. It is in fact a LOT of people's jobs.

[Ceepa]

Maybe bulletins such as these will move more people to get vaccinated.

[Clarity]

I'm not sure what the issue is? The job of the CDC is to evaluate risks to public health and develop stategies to mitigate it. It's the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. ;) (The prevention part generally gets left off.) I didn't think this headline was potentially that alarming or different from other info out there.

Personally, I think it would be irresponsible of the federal government not to let people know how bad it could be. Now if you think it's fear mongering, well, I've seen fear mongering and that article seemed pretty rational to me, I dunno.

There most certainly are people whose job it is to consider and plan for worst case scenarios. It is in fact a LOT of people's jobs.

I can appreciate your point of view, but I found the headline alarming. I've been mostly unworried, but a bold headline that shouts 90,000 could die of the flu this year really made me twist up with fear for my children and grandparents. You see, most have been rather blithely assuring us that the flu is nothing to be concerned about. So, I actually was startled to see them suddenly proclaiming there was something to be concerned about. I'm trying to decide if this is much like the hype around SARS and the avian flu or if I should be seriously concerned.

[egoldber]

I'm trying to decide if this is much like the hype around SARS and the avian flu or if I should be seriously concerned.

I guess the problem is you never know. SARS never really became a huge issue, but it turned out to not be that virulent. H1N1 this past spring was not as bad as they feared either, but the fact that it did not go away over the summer has people concerned. If it does mutate, it could be big. But it might not. There is no way to know that in advance, so the government has to plan for it to be big and hope that doesn't happen.

They have to find a balance between planning appropriately, keeping people informed and not creating panic. If the need for a vaccine is huge, then they will be damned for not doing more and promoting it more. If H1N1 turns out not to be that bad, then they will be accused of fear mongering. How can they win?

I saw a lot worse H1N1 projections that that earlier in the year, so I guess that was why I did not see the cause for alarm. But I suppose the fact that I am a statistician and my training is all about evaluating risks and uncertainties makes me a bit blase about these things. :)

[Ceepa]

OP is right, the headline is poor form, though. It should have read something more like: Report: Swine flu threatens to resurge.

[egoldber]

I can see why some may have found the headline startling. But the purpose of a headline is to attract people to a story.

[Ceepa]

But the purpose of a headline is to attract people to a story.

With journalism in mind, readership does not justify a poorly written headline. I guess that's what we get in today's sensationalized news-entertainment hybrid media landscape. It's a pity.

[wellyes]

I don't think the headline is sensationalized. It says that the flu could cause 90,000 death if it resurges as expected. That is sensational news.


You see, most have been rather blithely assuring us that the flu is nothing to be concerned about.

I don't think that's true at all. I think they've said that SO FAR, the flu hasn't been nearly as bad as it could have been. We can all extrapolate from that that it won't be a huge problem in the future, either. But in my mind, it would be irresponsible for the government or even the press to make those same assumptions.

[JamiMac]

I don't think the headline is sensationalized. It says that the flu could cause 90,000 death if it resurges as expected. That is sensational news.



I don't think that's true at all. I think they've said that SO FAR, the flu hasn't been nearly as bad as it could have been. We can all extrapolate from that that it won't be a huge problem in the future, either. But in my mind, it would be irresponsible for the government or even the press to make those same assumptions.

:yeahthat:

[icunurse]

I agree. IMO, the government hasn't downplayed it at all. It seems to be more of the general public saying that "I had it and just had some bad chills and a fever" and asking why they should subject themself to a new vax for that who are making it seem like no big deal. I know several people IRL who had it or whose family member had it and, fortunately, it wasn't a big deal, so they therefore think that all people have the same type of case, when that isn't how it works. They were just lucky.

Read this yesterday and thought it was interesting....
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/chi-0824edit1aug24,0,3497825.story

[AnnieW625]

I can see why some may have found the headline startling. But the purpose of a headline is to attract people to a story.

and it worked. It also provided people with idea that they are going to have to think about paying for a vaccine. The goal of the mass media is to provide buyers for products; vaccine=product; CNN=buyers, and I bet had this been a CNN story on one of their news programs it would've been followed by an ad from a pharmaceutical company.

I think it's best that the govt. warn people about the flu and let them know there is going to be a vaccine out there. I don't plan on getting vaccinated myself because I have never once gotten a flu vaccine, and unless there is a huge breakout where we live I probably won't get my daughter vaccinated either. I honestly believe that someone who didn't know about swine flu by now must be living under a rock, but the govt. has to believe that someone is living under a rock somewhere and has never heard of swine flu so that's why it's always on the air.

[wellyes]

It also provided people with idea that they are going to have to think about paying for a vaccine. The goal of the mass media is to provide buyers for products; vaccine=product; CNN=buyers, and I bet had this been a CNN story on one of their news programs it would've been followed by an ad from a pharmaceutical company.

I think that's a little cynical. Couldn't you just as easily say that news channels love to show stories about car crashes because they are in cahoots with car seat manufacturers? After all, most of us drive every day for years and year without getting into any accidents. Yet the mass media wants us to live in fear, try to incite panic about auto safety. Why should I pay $150+ for a car seat when odds are, DD would be fine -- even happier -- sitting on my lap?

[Sillygirl]

You see, most have been rather blithely assuring us that the flu is nothing to be concerned about. So, I actually was startled to see them suddenly proclaiming there was something to be concerned about.

IMHO, if the article is doing that, it's done it's job. Public health is trying to cut through the media static about health care reform, that swimsuit model being killed, Hurricane Bill and the return of Project Runway. People need to hear this - it's going to be an ugly flu season and there is not going to be a vaccine in time. You need plans for how you're going to care for a sick child who's out of school for a week or two. You need a week of food in your house in case you're all too sick to get out. Your boss needs to hear that pressuring people to come in sick is really stupid and counterproductive. People need to get paranoid enough to start washing their hands every ten minutes and covering their mouths when they cough. People need to step back from the obviously sick person on the subway. Those kinds of sweeping social changes aren't going to happen unless folks get the message that this is a big scary deal.

[Sillygirl]

I honestly believe that someone who didn't know about swine flu by now must be living under a rock, but the govt. has to believe that someone is living under a rock somewhere and has never heard of swine flu so that's why it's always on the air.

Respectfully, what kind of people make up your work and social circles? Do you have a lot of contact with people who are poor and undereducated? I ask because not a lot of middle class people do, or if they do, it's not the kind of contact where you're talking about health care. Many of my patients have limited education and are not watching CNN or even Fox. When I bring up swine flu (we may have to shut down our dialysis unit for a time if all our nurses get sick, so we are giving patients their emergency diets to follow) they mostly tell me they are going to stop eating pork chops. It's extremely easy to assume the message is getting out - to many of our most vulnerable, it is not.

[tarahsolazy]

Many of my patients have limited education and are not watching CNN or even Fox.) they mostly tell me they are going to stop eating pork chops. It's extremely easy to assume the message is getting out - to many of our most vulnerable, it is not.

ITA with Katie. Many of the patients' families I deal with also have this issue totally off their radar. Far more interested in where the next month's rent is coming from. They also typically believe that getting a flu vaccine will GIVE you the flu. We will likely see lots of preventative public health messages this fall on primetime TV, on billboards, the radio, etc. I sure hope we will. Things like handwashing, staying home when sick, staying away from sick appearing people, facts about flu, etc. Fear mongering? I don't know, but I really want people to know this stuff. Not just people like us, KWIM?

[Clarity]

I guess I'm glad on several levels that I brought this up. It's helpful to hear from Katie and Tarah here on the BBB suggesting there is indeed reason to have concerns this fall. Thank you, ladies.

[egoldber]

Exactly. The issue isn't educating people like us, it's trying to spread info to people who are NOT typically educated about these types of things.

[brittone2]

IMHO, if the article is doing that, it's done it's job. Public health is trying to cut through the media static about health care reform, that swimsuit model being killed, Hurricane Bill and the return of Project Runway. People need to hear this - it's going to be an ugly flu season and there is not going to be a vaccine in time. You need plans for how you're going to care for a sick child who's out of school for a week or two. You need a week of food in your house in case you're all too sick to get out. Your boss needs to hear that pressuring people to come in sick is really stupid and counterproductive. People need to get paranoid enough to start washing their hands every ten minutes and covering their mouths when they cough. People need to step back from the obviously sick person on the subway. Those kinds of sweeping social changes aren't going to happen unless folks get the message that this is a big scary deal.

Well, I think some of it is being overhyped, but I agree with what you are saying here. I think *this* may prove to be the real tragedy w/ swine flu. The family that can barely make the mortgage payments now needs to figure out how to afford having a parent home to care for a sick child, a sick parent, another child getting sick in a different time frame from the first, etc. So many people are just scraping by and don't have a plan in place for how they'll handle childcare, etc. And then we'll have people putting their kids back in daycare/school while still contagious or sick, and adults returning to the workplace too soon and infecting others because they can't afford the time off.

So yes, I think this part could be what is crippling---pushing families that are clinging to the edge right over the edge.

On the flip side, even in public health circles that 36,000 deaths in a typical (seasonal) flu season has been called into question many times by professionals questioning its accuracy. I think this is where sometimes the CDC, etc. shoots itself in the foot in terms of credibility, IMO. Ditto a few years ago when they hired a consultant to help them increase uptake for (seasonal) flu vaccines...it is more difficult to find his PowerPoint presentation to the CDC online anymore, but there was definitely a lot of push on focusing on hype/deaths as that drummed up demand effectively and increased uptake. I think I've linked to it in the past but it is harder to find online now (was available at the CDC site directly a few years ago IIRC). But the way they went about it, IMO, was ummm...a little "off". IMO, these are part of the CDC's credibility problems at times.

Typing this quickly as I'm getting DD down for her nap, so this is a bit rushed.

[strollerqueen]

To what cause? http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/us.swine.flu.projections/index.html

ITA. Totally unfounded speculation to create panic and fear. And it works. Example: my friend's mom came over last night worried because her DD had gone to law school and lost her cel phone. Now this is a grown woman, my age, married with two children. I asked her mom why she was so upset? Her answer was that "people get kidnapped and stuffed in trunks all the time and they can call for help with their cel phones. So she could be kidnapped and stuffed in a trunk right now and can't call for help because she has no cel phone." WHAT THE?????!!!!!!!!! Some people are NOT critical thinkers, and prone to fear and hysteria. So they will be rushing out getting the vaccine, buying papers and increasing circulation, watching more news reports and increasing viewership, etc...illnesses are good for business!

[BillK]

ITA. Totally unfounded speculation to create panic and fear. And it works. Example: my friend's mom came over last night worried because her DD had gone to law school and lost her cel phone. Now this is a grown woman, my age, married with two children. I asked her mom why she was so upset? Her answer was that "people get kidnapped and stuffed in trunks all the time and they can call for help with their cel phones. So she could be kidnapped and stuffed in a trunk right now and can't call for help because she has no cel phone." WHAT THE?????!!!!!!!!! Some people are NOT critical thinkers, and prone to fear and hysteria. So they will be rushing out getting the vaccine, buying papers and increasing circulation, watching more news reports and increasing viewership, etc...illnesses are good for business!
Hey! I was just kidnapped and stuffed in trunk today - thank God I had my cell phone - I called AAA and they unlocked the trunk for me. :rolleyes:

btw...as an insurance agent - I can see the whole "worst case scenario" viewpoint - it's what I do for living.

[wellyes]

But that woman's fear was irrational.
To me it is irrational to NOT be at least a little concerned about the coming flu season.
So the comparision doesn't make sense to me.

[strollerqueen]

But that woman's fear was irrational.
To me it is irrational to NOT be at least a little concerned about the coming flu season.
So the comparision doesn't make sense to me.

Just saying that panic, fear, and mass hysteria are a weak and ineffective response to any threat, real or perceived.

[jent]

Saw this today & thought it was a good update to the original article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/26/health/26flu.html?_r=2
(headline: Agency Urges Caution on Estimates of Swine Flu)