S/O College enrollment cliff/schools closing

[essnce629]

This article came out today and I thought of Wendibird's mention about the college enrollment cliff that's expected in 2025. Do to this cliff and the fact that many small private colleges are not financially healthy, many will be forced to close or merge in the near future. The article includes a chart with every private college's financial health grade. I found it useful and eye opening, especially since my DS1 is only interested in small liberal arts colleges so far.

Dawn Of The Dead: For Hundreds Of The Nation’s Private Colleges, It’s Merge Or Perish
https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2019/11/27/dawn-of-the-dead-for-hundreds-of-the-nations-private-colleges-its-merge-or-perish/#2e070795770d

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[StantonHyde]

Thanks for posting this. Very fascinating. Some of these are no surprise. Just because a college exists doesn't mean it's a good college. And the elite colleges will do well. It is sort of sad to see a school like Drexel not doing well financially---there were great things about that school 25 years ago. But I think it's ok for some colleges to close in order to match enrollment. I am bookmarking this article and want to check the colleges my kids apply to against this list.

[Kestrel]

This was interesting. I didn't realize how much would change before DS (high school class of 2027) is deciding on/if college. He's young enough that we're not looking into schools yet, but it sounds like thing could be very different by then!

[Kindra178]

Going back to this, can someone explain the cliff to me?


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[o_mom]

Going back to this, can someone explain the cliff to me?


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Basically, there is a dip in the birthrate, which is projected to hit colleges in the mid to late 2020's. Higher ed is predicting fairly significant drops in enrollment, which will affect small programs disproportionately. Google "college enrollment cliff" and you can get a ton of articles like this one: https://www.cupahr.org/issue/feature/higher-ed-enrollment-cliff/ which have various predictions of what the ulitmate impact will be.

[essnce629]

Concordia University in Portland announced today out of the blue that it is closing at the end of the semester. 5000+ students and 200+ faculty left hanging!

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/02/portlands-concordia-university-will-close-at-end-of-spring-semester.html

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[KpbS]

Concordia University in Portland announced today out of the blue that it is closing at the end of the semester. 5000+ students and 200+ faculty left hanging!

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/02/portlands-concordia-university-will-close-at-end-of-spring-semester.html

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Wild! I’ve been seeing ads for them in my fb feed for the last month with no real clue as to why.

[nfceagles]

That must be beyond frustrating for current students.

Won’t this drive down the cost of college in the long run? That would be a good thing, assuming you don’t end up at one of these closing universities.


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[wendibird22]

That must be beyond frustrating for current students.

Won’t this drive down the cost of college in the long run? That would be a good thing, assuming you don’t end up at one of these closing universities.


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I think it will be interesting to see what happens to cost. Right now private colleges have a discount rate (actual tuition instead of the sticker price) at the highest levels in history. So sticker price is going up but actual fee charged is being discounted so much that the colleges aren't sustainable. Some argue that this will cause colleges to "right size" and be the appropriate enrollment level after many years of continued growth. I don't know if right sizing enrollment will do anything to impact cost. Keep in mind that few students enrolled doesn't just mean less tuition, but less room and board, less student fees, and less meal plan money. All of that will have significant impacts on the operations of campuses beyond just salaries/staffing.

[California]

Concordia in Portland may be closing due to issues with their online advanced degree program (mainly for teachers.) Whistleblowers at the company they contracted to help run the program alleged that they violated federal regulations. The program was a huge source of revenue for the university.

[robinsmommy]

We are watching this closely as DD is most interested in the very small liberal arts schools. Marlboro was her favorite up to the time it moved to being a small school inside a larger college campus. The rural nature of what it was is gone.

[AngB]

Concordia University in Portland announced today out of the blue that it is closing at the end of the semester. 5000+ students and 200+ faculty left hanging!

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/02/portlands-concordia-university-will-close-at-end-of-spring-semester.html

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My friend was a professor at a secondary campus of a smallish private university. They announced at the end of last summer that they were completely closing the secondary campus this summer, so they were all out of jobs starting fall 2020 and the students who were attending are basically screwed. The main campus is almost an hour away and not feasible for many of them. They ended up really screwing over a lot of people. (Since they don't play well with transferring credits...)I wonder if even the main campus will survive this cliff...

[essnce629]

We are watching this closely as DD is most interested in the very small liberal arts schools. Marlboro was her favorite up to the time it moved to being a small school inside a larger college campus. The rural nature of what it was is gone.Yep, us too. DS1 is in 11th grade and is definitely drawn to the small liberal arts colleges. We are doing a college tour trip to Washington and Oregon over spring break.

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[HannaAddict]

Yep, us too. DS1 is in 11th grade and is definitely drawn to the small liberal arts colleges. We are doing a college tour trip to Washington and Oregon over spring break.

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Check out Whitman in Walla Walla wine country part of Washington. And Reed in Portland!


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[trales]

It's not just small liberal arts college that are in trouble. It is public universities and community colleges. Federal and state funding is down, costs are increasing, professors and staff don't make much, but health insurance is insane. More kids with special ed accommodations are going to college, so more staff is needed to make learning accessible (this is a good thing, but an expensive thing). Colleges are more dependent on underpaid adjuncts than ever. Software and learning management systems are expensive, as are IT staff to run it all. It's just crazy, our community college is 600,000 in the red this year. Enrollment is down as numbers of HS grads drop. We have the lowest number of faculty we have ever had. 60% of what is was 6 years ago, fewer staff overall and make ends meet.

I don't know what the future of higher ed. is, and what college will look like for my kids . . . but I do know it is a terrible career path right now.

[essnce629]

Check out Whitman in Walla Walla wine country part of Washington. And Reed in Portland!


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkUnfortunately Reed doesn't offer merit aid and we won't qualify for need based aid. I can't imagine paying $75k a year for an undergraduate degree at any school so it's off the list.

We'd love to visit Whitman (seems like a great fit on paper for DS and they have a rock climbing team) but it's a 4 hour drive from Seattle so we won't be able to get out there. They do have a fly-in program so I'm hoping DS will be able to visit it that way in the fall. I also have a fellow classmate of mine who's a professor there now and she loves her job and the school.

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[essnce629]

New article on the issue that came out this week:

[B]At the Precipice: 6 in 10 Colleges Say They Missed the Fall Enrollment Goals[\B]
https://www.chronicle.com/article/At-the-Precipice-6-in-10/248110?key=sDFk4Qum8UZIcp0FmqC6Ts54KU2bJqYB0uLtAXe Cqd0g3kpd_CnAKXJRflNQRsmLMGJQV2N4T1RydS1JdDExNHkyb jJBMGNvWFhncEh4Z1R1T1B3S3czTk9yZw

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[SnuggleBuggles]

Unfortunately Reed doesn't offer merit aid and we won't qualify for need based aid. I can't imagine paying $75k a year for an undergraduate degree at any school so it's off the list.

We'd love to visit Whitman (seems like a great fit on paper for DS and they have a rock climbing team) but it's a 4 hour drive from Seattle so we won't be able to get out there. They do have a fly-in program so I'm hoping DS will be able to visit it that way in the fall. I also have a fellow classmate of mine who's a professor there now and she loves her job and the school.

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We don’t qualify for need either but don’t write off a school. One that ds1 got into deducted $17k just as a discount. Apply where interested then wait and see what the offers are. And negotiate those offers if needed! Worked for our friend! Daughter called, said she liked their school best but the other school offered her a better deal. They negotiated and dropped the price to match. You just never know.


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[SnuggleBuggles]

New article on the issue that came out this week:

[B]At the Precipice: 6 in 10 Colleges Say They Missed the Fall Enrollment Goals[\B]
https://www.chronicle.com/article/At-the-Precipice-6-in-10/248110?key=sDFk4Qum8UZIcp0FmqC6Ts54KU2bJqYB0uLtAXe Cqd0g3kpd_CnAKXJRflNQRsmLMGJQV2N4T1RydS1JdDExNHkyb jJBMGNvWFhncEh4Z1R1T1B3S3czTk9yZw

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We toured a smaller college last week that got a C+ in that December article for financial health so I was already a bit worried about it. A tip I read when touring colleges was to pick up a school newspaper for vibe of school. Hadn’t proven very interesting at other schools we toured but this one was. Headline was about faculty worries over financial health of school and lack of faith in administration. Not great timing for that article— coincided with admitted student day where they spend the day selling you on their school.


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[essnce629]

We don’t qualify for need either but don’t write off a school. One that ds1 got into deducted $17k just as a discount. Apply where interested then wait and see what the offers are. And negotiate those offers if needed! Worked for our friend! Daughter called, said she liked their school best but the other school offered her a better deal. They negotiated and dropped the price to match. You just never know.


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Did you run the Net Price Calculator (NPC) for the school beforehand and was the $17k listed in there or was it a total surprise? Perhaps it was a 100% meet needs school and your EFC was less than the cost of attendance so they met your "need" with the $17k? Reed specifically says on their website that they don't offer merit scholarships and when I ran the NPC for them it has us paying full price with zero discounts.

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[essnce629]

We toured a smaller college last week that got a C+ in that December article for financial health so I was already a bit worried about it. A tip I read when touring colleges was to pick up a school newspaper for vibe of school. Hadn’t proven very interesting at other schools we toured but this one was. Headline was about faculty worries over financial health of school and lack of faith in administration. Not great timing for that article— coincided with admitted student day where they spend the day selling you on their school.


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Oh wow, that's crazy! And yes, I've been picking up the school newspapers when touring. Good tip! Once we get to senior year and acceptances start rolling in I definitely think financial health of the school should play a factor in deciding.

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[SnuggleBuggles]

Did you run the Net Price Calculator (NPC) for the school beforehand and was the $17k listed in there or was it a total surprise? Perhaps it was a 100% meet needs school and your EFC was less than the cost of attendance so they met your "need" with the $17k? Reed specifically says on their website that they don't offer merit scholarships and when I ran the NPC for them it has us paying full price with zero discounts.

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Haven’t heard of that so I didn’t but I honestly would just apply, wait and see. If it’s the perfect school too then I’m sure you could discuss the feasibility (you cover $x, they get loans for the rest, for example). My ds1 is debating those choices now.
My MIL works for a small liberal arts university and she said they give everyone a discount.
You never really know. I’m not sure a 3rd party website can accurately predict what each school has allotted to give out. I could be wrong. I’d just wait and see.


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[essnce629]

You never really know. I’m not sure a 3rd party website can accurately predict what each school has allotted to give out. I could be wrong. I’d just wait and see.

It's not a 3rd party website. Every college in the United States is now required to have a Net Price Calculator on their website. It's the only way to get an accurate prediction of what your expected family contribution and aid will be. To complete the calculator you enter in all your family's detailed financial info (income, investments, assets, home equity, etc) and sometimes your kid's SAT/ACT scores and GPA to calculate what merit aid they automatically qualify for. According to all the reading I've done it's usually pretty accurate. We don't want DS1 to have to take out any loans (we're still paying for mine).

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/loans/student-loans/3-things-about-net-price-calculators/



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[SnuggleBuggles]

It's not a 3rd party website. Every college in the United States is now required to have a Net Price Calculator on their website. It's the only way to get an accurate prediction of what your expected family contribution and aid will be. To complete the calculator you enter in all your family's detailed financial info (income, investments, assets, home equity, etc) and sometimes your kid's SAT/ACT scores and GPA to calculate what merit aid they automatically qualify for. According to all the reading I've done it's usually pretty accurate. We don't want DS1 to have to take out any loans (we're still paying for mine).

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/loans/student-loans/3-things-about-net-price-calculators/



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Gotcha. I remember that now! I really didn’t bother and just let him apply with the intention of figuring it out when the time came. [emoji6]


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[mom2binsd]

I'm sorry, but did if read some undergraduate program is 75k a year???? I'm trying to figure out who goes there???

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[SnuggleBuggles]

I'm sorry, but did if read some undergraduate program is 75k a year???? I'm trying to figure out who goes there???

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Yep. U of Chicago is approaching $100k/year. Plenty in that $65k+ range.


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[essnce629]

I'm sorry, but did if read some undergraduate program is 75k a year???? I'm trying to figure out who goes there???

Sent from my SM-G950U using TapatalkYep, plenty of schools have tuition that is $55k+ a year. Add in room & board, meal plan, books, and fees and the total cost is $75k!

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[AnnieW625]

Yep, plenty of schools have tuition that is $55k+ a year. Add in room & board, meal plan, books, and fees and the total cost is $75k!

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Have you looked at St. Mary’s College of California? It is about a 20 minute drive from Oakland near Walnut Creek. Their tuition is $50k a year so close to $70k after books and room and board, but I just did their initial net price and for a student with a 3.83, 1200+ SAT, and a 30+ ACT they offer a $30,000 scholarship. There are about 3500 undergraduates. (This is my dad’s alma mater so that is how I know about it).

I did it for Stanford as well and based on mine and DH’s current savings, current salaries, and retirement funds we would get about $40k in aid including a work study job. Now getting into Stanford is another story, but for such a university it almost sounds like a bargain.

I also did it USC and entered in the same information and the only discount we got was $6000. We are firmly in the middle class imho. I can’t imagine my child with over $225k in debt for four years based on that small of a discount. Now of course once my kid applies in four years the need based discounts could be more, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.


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[essnce629]

Gotcha. I remember that now! I really didn’t bother and just let him apply with the intention of figuring it out when the time came. [emoji6]


Sent from my iPhone using Baby Bargains (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=87652)I guess I just don't want any surprises and don't see the point of visiting and applying to schools that I know ahead of time are financially unaffordable. I've read so many stories of kids falling in love with and getting into schools only to find out afterwards that they don't qualify for any aid and have to then decide whether to give up going to their "dream" school or ending up with a ton of student loan debt. I had zero help in the college admissions process as my mom was a single parent and neither of my parents had gone to college. All the schools I applied to were sight unseen. Even though I ended up at USC, looking back it was a horrible decision financially, but how was I to know that at 17 years old with no guidance? I don't want that for DS.

Have you looked at St. Mary’s College of California? It is about a 20 minute drive from Oakland near Walnut Creek. Their tuition is $50k a year so close to $70k after books and room and board, but I just did their initial net price and for a student with a 3.83, 1200+ SAT, and a 30+ ACT they offer a $30,000 scholarship. There are about 3500 undergraduates. (This is my dad’s alma mater so that is how I know about it).
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No, we haven't visited any schools in CA north of Santa Barbara yet, but it's on DS's list of recommended schools from his counselor. He will have to decide if he's ok with attending a religiously affiliated school though. He's a hardcore atheist! Diversity is also an issue at smaller private schools and DS cares about that.

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[SnuggleBuggles]

But don’t forget that the aid offered at school isn’t all that’s available. T high school is good, they’ll compile local and national scholarship opportunities they can apply to. And there’s tons of research you can do to hunt down more. Even those little ones add up. Some are just $500- but that buys some books or other more minor (but costly) expenses.


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[mm123]

Yep. U of Chicago is approaching $100k/year. Plenty in that $65k+ range.


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Ok, that is just insane!! I don’t understand why more Americans don’t go to university in Canada or Europe. Even considering fees for foreign students, tuition would be a fraction of what it is at so many of the US schools.

I went to undergrad at McGill (in Montreal), and at the time (early 90’s) paid about $1400 tuition. Of course, that’s gone up, but pretty much any undergrad at a Canadian university costs between $7000 and $9000 per year. Tuition for foreign students is much higher (probably in the $20-30,000 Canadian range). But considering how weak the Canadian dollar is these days that would be a bargain for Americans! And I’ve heard European universities are even less.

[mom2binsd]

Ok, that is just insane!! I don’t understand why more Americans don’t go to university in Canada or Europe. Even considering fees for foreign students, tuition would be a fraction of what it is at so many of the US schools.

I went to undergrad at McGill (in Montreal), and at the time (early 90’s) paid about $1400 tuition. Of course, that’s gone up, but pretty much any undergrad at a Canadian university costs between $7000 and $9000 per year. Tuition for foreign students is much higher (probably in the $20-30,000 Canadian range). But considering how weak the Canadian dollar is these days that would be a bargain for Americans! And I’ve heard European universities are even less.And the quality of education at Canadian universities is top notch and rigorous. My kids are dual citizens so can pay the normal non international tuition and I would love for them to go to school up there. DD has her sights set on U of Illinois, they offer free tuition for 4 years to Illinois students whose families make less than 61k, and my income is well below that, so if she can get in, and her grades and test scores are pretty competitive, so I'll only have to pay for room and board. Fingers crossed.

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[essnce629]

But don’t forget that the aid offered at school isn’t all that’s available. T high school is good, they’ll compile local and national scholarship opportunities they can apply to. And there’s tons of research you can do to hunt down more. Even those little ones add up. Some are just $500- but that buys some books or other more minor (but costly) expenses.

Yes, but I think a better strategy is to focus on schools that give the most merit aid and then have your kid work on getting their SAT/ACT score as high as it can be in order to get the maximum amount of merit aid. At some schools, this can be up to $25-30k and is renewable all 4 years. Studying for the SAT/ACT for a few weeks and/or getting private tutoring definitely pays off if you end up with $100k+ in automatic merit scholarships. You could apply to 100 outside scholarships but even if you win some worth a few hundred or thousand dollars, most are not renewable and some schools don't even allow stacking of outside scholarships with the aid they give you.

[westwoodmom04]

Ok, that is just insane!! I don’t understand why more Americans don’t go to university in Canada or Europe. Even considering fees for foreign students, tuition would be a fraction of what it is at so many of the US schools.

I went to undergrad at McGill (in Montreal), and at the time (early 90’s) paid about $1400 tuition. Of course, that’s gone up, but pretty much any undergrad at a Canadian university costs between $7000 and $9000 per year. Tuition for foreign students is much higher (probably in the $20-30,000 Canadian range). But considering how weak the Canadian dollar is these days that would be a bargain for Americans! And I’ve heard European universities are even less.

In Maryland, our instate tuition is about about the same —$10,000 per year, whether students the flagship or half a dozen others.

[KpbS]

We don't want DS1 to have to take out any loans (we're still paying for mine).

[

This is a great goal. More people need to understood how hard it is too pay off $$$$$$$ college loans. Save that money for graduate school, a house, etc.

[niccig]

Ok, that is just insane!! I don’t understand why more Americans don’t go to university in Canada or Europe. Even considering fees for foreign students, tuition would be a fraction of what it is at so many of the US schools.

I went to undergrad at McGill (in Montreal), and at the time (early 90’s) paid about $1400 tuition. Of course, that’s gone up, but pretty much any undergrad at a Canadian university costs between $7000 and $9000 per year. Tuition for foreign students is much higher (probably in the $20-30,000 Canadian range). But considering how weak the Canadian dollar is these days that would be a bargain for Americans! And I’ve heard European universities are even less.

DS has dual citizenship and can go to college in Australia for about $6k Australian in tuition. My only concern is that the system there is different to here, so it will depend on what he wants to do. DH has a large network of colleagues from his college days and used it to get started in his career, and at other times eg when he got laid off a college friend put in a word and he got hired as a free lancer than later full time. Going to college overseas may not give DS a network to tap into. It is an option to consider


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[wendibird22]

Yes, but I think a better strategy is to focus on schools that give the most merit aid and then have your kid work on getting their SAT/ACT score as high as it can be in order to get the maximum amount of merit aid. At some schools, this can be up to $25-30k and is renewable all 4 years. Studying for the SAT/ACT for a few weeks and/or getting private tutoring definitely pays off if you end up with $100k+ in automatic merit scholarships. You could apply to 100 outside scholarships but even if you win some worth a few hundred or thousand dollars, most are not renewable and some schools don't even allow stacking of outside scholarships with the aid they give you.

Given that so many elite colleges, and now not even just elite, are going test optional (meaning they don't have to look at SAT/ACT) and almost every campus has prioritized access to underrepresented students and first gen students. Given that, plus significant financial challenges across higher ed, lot of aid is no longer going to merit but to need/unmet need. A high achieving student without need, will enroll and find a way to pay full price (and colleges with financial challenges need to full tuition payers more than ever) but the high achieving student with unmet need, will not enroll without scholarship. And high achieving is being defined by core GPA (not overall GPA) instead of SAT/ACT scores. The landscape of aid packages and scholarshipping is changing rapidly.

[essnce629]

Given that so many elite colleges, and now not even just elite, are going test optional (meaning they don't have to look at SAT/ACT) and almost every campus has prioritized access to underrepresented students and first gen students. Given that, plus significant financial challenges across higher ed, lot of aid is no longer going to merit but to need/unmet need. A high achieving student without need, will enroll and find a way to pay full price (and colleges with financial challenges need to full tuition payers more than ever) but the high achieving student with unmet need, will not enroll without scholarship. And high achieving is being defined by core GPA (not overall GPA) instead of SAT/ACT scores. The landscape of aid packages and scholarshipping is changing rapidly.Hmm, but "test optional" doesn't mean "tests won't be looked at and play a role in admissions." It seems like the majority of kids who apply to test optional schools submit their scores if they're high and don't if they're low. This definitely benefits the school in a big way since the average ACT/SAT scores of their admitted class will go up (since there will be no low scores submitted), which means they can move up in the rankings of U.S. News. Kids who get ACT scores above 30 will most likely submit their scores (because they won't hurt them) and kids who score in the teens/20s will not (because they would possibly hurt them). Colleges love to move up in the rankings so they basically pay kids (with lots of merit money) for their high test scores. The schools and the high testing students win. Obviously the most selective/elite schools (like the Ivy schools) don't give out any merit aid because they don't have to (all the kids applying have near perfect test scores and GPAs). So I'm talking about the schools below that elite level. I've read several articles lately that these colleges are increasing the money they're giving to high testing students, even though those students are usually high income kids who have the money to pay for lots of test prep, private schooling, etc. It's all a game and I agree that offering merit aid to students who can technically afford full tuition, takes money away from students who actually have a real financial aid. My son is in that category, but I refuse to pay full tuition so we'll play the game.



"If you’re an enrollment manager, he explains, the easiest category of students for you to admit are below-average students from high-income families. Because their parents can afford tutoring, they are very likely to have decent test scores, which means they won’t hurt your U.S. News ranking."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/magazine/college-admissions-paul-tough.html


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