what are the chances of having a c-section after a vaginal delivery?

[basil]

Why can't I find this information? It must be known somewhere/someplace. If the total rate is ~30% then the rate after successful vaginal delivery must be substantially lower, right?

My first labor was about 12 hours from arrival at the hospital (2 or 3 cm) to delivery, pitocin augmented, with about 1 hour of pushing. DS was 7 lbs, 10 oz, I was 40w3d. So all in all went pretty smoothly. This baby is head down at 36 weeks and I am 1 cm dilated so far.

Just wondering what my chances are of having a complication this time, vs things all being ok like last time.

[swissair81]

Roughly 60-80%. I did an entire grad level paper on this last semester. I can give you source material if you want.

[mikala]

Roughly 60-80%. I did an entire grad level paper on this last semester. I can give you source material if you want.

Wouldn't this be the rate of vaginal delivery for subsequent deliveries instead of the rate of c-section for subsequent birth?

Going from a very unscientific poll of my friends and family (maybe 40 moms?) everyone who had their first child vaginally was able to deliver subsequent children the same way. There are obviously exceptions to this in larger data sets and every pregnancy is different but I'm guessing op is correct about the rate bring lower than 30‰.

[georgiegirl]

I'm guessing you should be able to have another vaginal delivery no problem. I think Obs are much more relaxed if you have a "proven pelvis." Your first birth sounds totally average. I'm guessing this time around will be quicker and easier. I know a few moms who c-sections the second time around because (1) baby was breech or (2) they were induced early for some reason, like preeclampsia, and their body wasn't ready to deliver.

[swissair81]

Wouldn't this be the rate of vaginal delivery for subsequent deliveries instead of the rate of c-section for subsequent birth?

Going from a very unscientific poll of my friends and family (maybe 40 moms?) everyone who had their first child vaginally was able to deliver subsequent children the same way. There are obviously exceptions to this in larger data sets and every pregnancy is different but I'm guessing op is correct about the rate bring lower than 30‰.

Yes sorry. DS had a sleep study last night and clearly I am tired enough for you to need to point out the obvious.

[basil]

Thanks! Yeah, I keep finding data about rates of VBAC but not "CAVB"!!

[AnnieW625]

Totally late to this thread, but you could have placenta previa with any pregnancy and need a c section even after a vaginal birth. I had it with DD1 until she was around 32 weeks so I delivered vaginally, but I didn't have it DD2.

[klwa]

Anecdotal at best, but several friends/family have had C's after their first was born V. However, by far more have had V births if they had a V birth with their first child.

[sunnyside]

http://www.ajog.org/article/S0002-93...968-5/fulltext

[llama8]

I would think that it depends on the pregnancy. You could have no complications the first time and have something arise in the second pregnancy. For example, the baby could be breech. I would think it would be so dependent on an individual situation. Most likely a healthy vaginal delivery with #1 would be more likely with #2, barring specific issues, because the body has proven that it could deliver vaginally.