Covid 19 info

[essnce629]

The last report I heard on the cruise ship was 700-ish confirmed cases (including asymptomatic) and 6 deaths so far.

Ok, but a 3% death rate would be 21 people dead out of 700 confirmed cases. Only 6 deaths out of 700 would be less than a 1% death rate (0.86%). So yeah, seems like the actual death rate is lower than what we're hearing.

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[dogmom]

Ok, but a 3% death rate would be 21 people dead out of 700 confirmed cases. Only 6 deaths out of 700 would be less than a 1% death rate (0.86%). So yeah, seems like the actual death rate is lower than what we're hearing.

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Best study to date I could find was death rate was 2.5%. They are still trying to nail down the R0-how communicable it is.


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762510
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762130

[o_mom]

Ok, but a 3% death rate would be 21 people dead out of 700 confirmed cases. Only 6 deaths out of 700 would be less than a 1% death rate (0.86%). So yeah, seems like the actual death rate is lower than what we're hearing.

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Note the words "so far". The most recent death was yesterday. Even a 1-2% death rate is going to be more than what we see with flu

[JBaxter]

I don't doubt it is a serious virus especially to those with other medical issues the more I read the less I am worried. I'm going on with my regularly scheduled life. I'll pretend its hurricane season and call it a day.

[robinsmommy]

The issue with talking about the death rate is that it changes (R0 does, too- and it sounds like it can be reduced through behavior and containment measures.) It may be low in developed countries now, just at the start of spread. When hospitals get overwhelmed, which is likely if it becomes widespread given how transmissible it is, the death rate will go up- this is what happened in China. As PP’s have noted, beds in ICU’s, infectious disease units, or even in hospitals; respiratory equipment; healthy medical staff- those will all be in short supply, and likely some meds as well. Also timing- it can take some time to get sick enough to need the hospital, and even longer to die or recover. Too early to see much of the data.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell

https://mobile.twitter.com/MackayIM

Are sources that I have been using for info.

[bisous]

Note the words "so far". The most recent death was yesterday. Even a 1-2% death rate is going to be more than what we see with flu

In the Daily podcast that was explained as if you know 300 people, 6 of them will die. So it’s not even close to everyone but it’s still a scarier and more tragic scenario than what we are used to dealing with with infectious diseases. Again, I’m not panicked, but I think it’s good to have accurate information and to prepare for a sobering reality.

[dogmom]

In the Daily podcast that was explained as if you know 300 people, 6 of them will die. So it’s not even close to everyone but it’s still a scarier and more tragic scenario than what we are used to dealing with with infectious diseases. Again, I’m not panicked, but I think it’s good to have accurate information and to prepare for a sobering reality.

I agree. The Washington State person is a teenager. If it spreads we can write off the old and sick, even the middle age will be written down as “well only a few”. But if it effects a large number of young adults and kids people are not going to cope well once they let go of their denial.

To be clear, I am not advocating panic. But just pretending it’s like the flu or a hurricane if it turns into a pandemic that hits us isn’t helpful. There is little to do but really work in hygiene behavior changes in our own homes. If there is a large scale outbreak realistic assessments of when to go out in public.

It’s a virus, it doesn’t care if you are brave or scared or whatever. I think we all just need to sort out our emotional responses (to minimize or overblow it), acknowledges that’s our emotional side taking, and move on.

[twowhat?]

Also remember the death rate is likely to not be accurate at this time. Most testing is done on people who meet the CDC criteria to test (they can't manufacture enough tests for every single person, after all), so it is almost certain that there are many many cases which were mild/asymptomatic but were not confirmed as COVID-19 because those folks were never tested/never suspected of having this virus. That potentially brings the death rate WAY down.

I think worst case is that this virus becomes one of the many that circulates in the human population, part of normal life, and if it were a year-round threat vs a seasonal threat like the flu.

[KpbS]

Also remember the death rate is likely to not be accurate at this time. Most testing is done on people who meet the CDC criteria to test (they can't manufacture enough tests for every single person, after all), so it is almost certain that there are many many cases which were mild/asymptomatic but were not confirmed as COVID-19 because those folks were never tested/never suspected of having this virus. That potentially brings the death rate WAY down.

I think worst case is that this virus becomes one of the many that circulates in the human population, part of normal life, and if it were a year-round threat vs a seasonal threat like the flu.

We are already hand washing maniacs in our house, well, I am the enforcer.

This really is an unfortunate scenario with China deliberately lying to its own people and the world regarding infection, contagion, death rates, etc. Very little reliable information can be gleaned at this point since our data is so incomplete. It seems like test kits will continue to be in short supply, high demand for quite some time. I’m really hoping with the change of seasons here in North America the infection rates will slow, like influenza.

[dogmom]

I think worst case is that this virus becomes one of the many that circulates in the human population, part of normal life, and if it were a year-round threat vs a seasonal threat like the flu.

Argh, no! That’s not the worse case. Pandemics are bad because you get a novel virus without a large pool of immunity that spreads to a significant enough portion of the works population to have an effect on the Heath and economic systems globally. This will have a direct effect on our ability to take care of the sick. And I don’t just mean those with the virus. We have a finite number of hospital beds and ED slots, and they seam 90% occupied now.