Dr. Fauci says staying home for too long could cause irreparable damage

[westwoodmom04]

Social distancing saved lives. Due to our abject failure at the federal level, states were running blind. We should have begun quarantine two weeks earlier and things would be so much closer to normal now.


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The efficacy of lockdowns over keeping some things open, wearing masks, and not allowing large gatherings has yet to be quantified or proven. Japan, for example, barely locked down but everyone wore masks, they had a great result. Sweden is now well past it’s peak and it’s per capita death rate is less than Pennsylvania, and on par with Maryland and Ireland, all of which had stay at home orders.

So while some form of social distancing and public health measures lowers the mortality rate , which combination of measures is best has yet to be established with hard evidence.

[elbenn]

The efficacy of lockdowns over keeping some things open, wearing masks, and not allowing large gatherings has yet to be quantified or proven. Japan, for example, barely locked down but everyone wore masks, they had a great result. Sweden is now well past it’s peak and it’s per capita death rate is less than Pennsylvania, and on par with Maryland and Ireland, all of which had stay at home orders.

So while some form of social distancing and public health measures lowers the mortality rate , which combination of measures is best has yet to be established with hard evidence.

Yes, this is what I've been reading. We really don't know what combination works best yet.

[legaleagle]

Sweden is not doing well at all - their death rate is on par with the US and much much higher than other Nordic countries.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuac.../#48eb2f772dcd

[westwoodmom04]

Sweden is not doing well at all - their death rate is on par with the US and much much higher than other Nordic countries.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuac.../#48eb2f772dcd

My point wasn’t that Sweden was better, just that it never had a shut down order and has ot done worse than most Western European countries and comparably sizes US states that did, so it is quite possible that shut down orders are not as effective as other public health measures because they are not leading to better results. NY and Lombardy had lockdowns and still had the highest per capita death rates in the world. Florida has the second most international visitors in US, infected cruise ship landings, spring breakers, and Disney world, plus a super old population, a very short lockdown and has roughly the same per capita covid death rate as California. The conclusion I draw from that is public health measures have some effect but probably not as much as we would like to believe, and other factors such as density and climate matter much more. There has also been speculation that lock downs increase spread within households. I look forward to reading the research on all of this in the future, but right now, much of what people are insisting is required by science and evidence actually hasn’t been proven.

[Kindra178]

The efficacy of lockdowns over keeping some things open, wearing masks, and not allowing large gatherings has yet to be quantified or proven. Japan, for example, barely locked down but everyone wore masks, they had a great result. Sweden is now well past it’s peak and it’s per capita death rate is less than Pennsylvania, and on par with Maryland and Ireland, all of which had stay at home orders.

So while some form of social distancing and public health measures lowers the mortality rate , which combination of measures is best has yet to be established with hard evidence.

Japan followed serious social distancing. I have friends who live there. They stayed home, for ten weeks just like we did.


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[westwoodmom04]

Japan followed serious social distancing. I have friends who live there. They stayed home, for ten weeks just like we did.


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Perhaps people teleworked . . . But Japan was only had a shut down order for one month and it didn’t start until April and was not nationwide.
Even the subways stayed open. But the Japanese are very very good about wearing masks and it apparently made a huge difference. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...new-study-says

[elbenn]

Japan followed serious social distancing. I have friends who live there. They stayed home, for ten weeks just like we did.


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I also know people in Japan. They didn't have the same lockdowns and even had large festivals/concerts (but they were very good about wearing masks).

[JustMe]

I did not read the links posted as I have a ton going on today, so I am not agreeing or disagreeing with them. However, I did watch an interview with Dr Fauci about memorial weekend, etc. He encouraged going out, getting exercise, but continuing to social distance and be responsible. He did not in any way indicate that we should not have stayed home. J

[legaleagle]

Right if we say that other factors (climate, demographics etc) matter more than the pertinent comparison for Sweden would be the other Nordic countries which it has done much worse. Obviously shutdowns are very blunt instruments.

[carolinamama]

My point wasn’t that Sweden was better, just that it never had a shut down order and has ot done worse than most Western European countries and comparably sizes US states that did, so it is quite possible that shut down orders are not as effective as other public health measures because they are not leading to better results. NY and Lombardy had lockdowns and still had the highest per capita death rates in the world. Florida has the second most international visitors in US, infected cruise ship landings, spring breakers, and Disney world, plus a super old population, a very short lockdown and has roughly the same per capita covid death rate as California. The conclusion I draw from that is public health measures have some effect but probably not as much as we would like to believe, and other factors such as density and climate matter much more. There has also been speculation that lock downs increase spread within households. I look forward to reading the research on all of this in the future, but right now, much of what people are insisting is required by science and evidence actually hasn’t been proven.

I'm not even sure we will be able to extract accurate info comparing all these places, lock down orders or not. The interpretation of lock down orders varies so widely, country to country, state to state and even household to household. In the US, ours were lenient compared to Asia and some European countries. Lombardy and NY locked down later in their trajectory than other places. Some countries didn't have a strict lock down order, yet citizens took the recommendations of their government seriously and imposed their own social distancing. It will interesting indeed but I suspect their is more nuance to the topic than simply lock down or not.

The one thing I tell myself repeatedly about the guidelines and models is that no one really knows. Experts are essentially using best-case educated guesses using data from past flu pandemics and even flu virus research. We all need to think critically and protect our families and communities the best we can.