Yes, this is the one. I think it's possible for the primary endpoint to to shift up, if the patients recruited on the earlier end have enough events. Or, it could shift back if not enough events are being collected. But I agree with o_mom that it's unlikely to change too much.
Has anyone ever wondered whether vaccine trial participants are less likely to be infected, just because trial participants are more likely to believe in/want to contribute to science and therefore take a more science-based approach to risk mitigation? I've always wondered that. On the flip side, vaccine participants are taking on risk by agreeing to be a part of the study, so there's that.
EUA (not FDA approval) requires less follow-up time, so it's possible for an EUA to be granted earlier though I cannot find any recent news sources to back that up. I'm also curious if the pediatrician posted above has some insider info. I mean, it would be GREAT if an EUA were granted in the Spring and the vaccine could be delivered to 12+ starting early summer. It would be FABULOUS. And with supply chain being better now...I mean, that would be SO GREAT to get this rolling ahead of the next school year - maybe that would help so that more resources can be diverted to elementary schools for risk mitigation. My fingers and toes are crossed.