Myocarditis post vaccination

[twowhat?]

The CDC postponed today's advisory committee meeting to next week in observation of Juneteenth. While we wait a little longer to see more data, I'm re-linking this summary of the available data that was discussed at the FDA advisory committee meeting last week:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...carditis-cases

I'm also linking a couple of things about the Delta variant:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...d-implications
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...33531695489027

The Delta variant is a rapidly changing situation in the US - something to all keep our eye out on. FWIW, our fully vaccinated family is going on vacation and even going to attempt Disneyland and we will be keeping a sharp eye on this. Our current plan is to wear N95 equivalent masks indoors or in crowds, which could be a lot of the time while we are there. We will be there with our friends, a fully vaccinated family of physician parents. And they confirmed that they have also purchased N95 equivalent masks and will be wearing them indoors and in crowds.

[ahisma]

The CDC postponed today's advisory committee meeting to next week in observation of Juneteenth. While we wait a little longer to see more data, I'm re-linking this summary of the available data that was discussed at the FDA advisory committee meeting last week:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...carditis-cases

I'm also linking a couple of things about the Delta variant:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...d-implications
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...33531695489027

The Delta variant is a rapidly changing situation in the US - something to all keep our eye out on. FWIW, our fully vaccinated family is going on vacation and even going to attempt Disneyland and we will be keeping a sharp eye on this. Our current plan is to wear N95 equivalent masks indoors or in crowds, which could be a lot of the time while we are there. We will be there with our friends, a fully vaccinated family of physician parents. And they confirmed that they have also purchased N95 equivalent masks and will be wearing them indoors and in crowds.

Question - and please know that I am not pushing back - we have been super cautious and still are, but our kids are now fully vaccinated so we've been letting up a little bit (i.e. in-person music lessons with a vaccinated teacher, etc.)

Why are you wearing N-95s if your entire family is fully vaccinated? As I read it, Delta is a risk on a population level, but not a significant risk on an individual level if you are fully vaccinated. I've been in the weeds lately though, so I may totally be missing something. I'm wondering what your thought process is there - not to critique but to understand more.

[twowhat?]

Question - and please know that I am not pushing back - we have been super cautious and still are, but our kids are now fully vaccinated so we've been letting up a little bit (i.e. in-person music lessons with a vaccinated teacher, etc.)

Why are you wearing N-95s if your entire family is fully vaccinated? As I read it, Delta is a risk on a population level, but not a significant risk on an individual level if you are fully vaccinated. I've been in the weeds lately though, so I may totally be missing something. I'm wondering what your thought process is there - not to critique but to understand more.

Because I have a super low risk tolerance. Agree that delta is the biggest risk to the unvaccinated. But vaccination isn't 100%, and likely to be even less effective in the elderly so we don't want to bring something back to the grandparents if we can avoid it, particularly a strain that's looking like it's also more virulent (on top of being more transmissible). And because this would be one of our first re-entry events and it is likely to be VERY crowded, with known unvaccinated people, and the masks will also help us mentally approach it. Because DH and I are approaching the 6-month post-vaccination mark and there's always the "waning immunity" bugging the back of my mind. And because both of our families are close enough to medical personnel that we've already heard enough stories of fully vaccinated patients still ending up in critical care. But mostly because I just have a super low risk tolerance. We're wearing KN95s in the airport/plane too. For our family, not going out at all unless essential to going out and wearing masks at Disneyland is a HUGE leap

[chlobo]

Because I have a super low risk tolerance. Agree that delta is the biggest risk to the unvaccinated. But vaccination isn't 100%, and likely to be even less effective in the elderly

Someone just told me there have been 4000 cases of Covid in fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts so there is still a risk. I realize the percentage is still small, as Mass has vaccinated 4 million people but I'm just agreeing with you about the masks.

[twowhat?]

Someone just told me there have been 4000 cases of Covid in fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts so there is still a risk. I realize the percentage is still small, as Mass has vaccinated 4 million people but I'm just agreeing with you about the masks.

That's definitely what bothers me and it's even more sobering when you put it in numbers. Pfizer 2 doses, fully vaccinated, though still something like 88% effective against Delta, means about 1 in 10 fully vaccinated people will still get sick. And even though 95ish% effective against hospitalization that means 1 in 20 people will still be hospitalized. 1 in 20!

My risk tolerance level is more like 1 in 1000 will get hospitalized.

[ahisma]

Because I have a super low risk tolerance.

That's where I am too, I just keep on getting the "why mask if you are vaccinated" question so I thought I'd throw it out there. The cashier at Costco very kindly assured me that the science on the vaccine is very, very promising yesterday. Thanks for your patience in answering - and for reassuring me that I'm not alone in my risk aversion.

[vludmilla]

That's definitely what bothers me and it's even more sobering when you put it in numbers. Pfizer 2 doses, fully vaccinated, though still something like 88% effective against Delta, means about 1 in 10 fully vaccinated people will still get sick. And even though 95ish% effective against hospitalization that means 1 in 20 people will still be hospitalized. 1 in 20!

My risk tolerance level is more like 1 in 1000 will get hospitalized.

You are misunderstanding the statistics. Your risk of infection after vaccination is actually much less than even 1 in 1000.

Here is an explanation:

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...explained.html

Here is another explanation. Part of the problem is that you are not considering the "attack rate" and, fortunately, the attack rate gets lower as vaccination increases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...075-X/fulltext

[nfceagles]

I’m perfectly accepting of you taking precautions and masking as long as you want, but your risk of hospitalization is no where near 1 in 20. That’s a misunderstanding of the numbers and math involved. I didn’t read previous posters links with explanations. They’re probably better than mine, but in simplistic terms the vaccine reduces your existing risk by 95%. So, hypothetically, if your risk of hospitalization was 1 in 20 without the vaccine, it’s now 95% lower than that. So 5% of 5% or 1 in 400. But even that is conditional on you getting infected which is much lower now that you and many around you are vaccinated. So if you have a 10% chance of getting infected (I think that’s really high honestly now that community rates are much lower), you have a (.10)*(1/400) chance of getting infected and being hospitalized. That’s equal to 1 in 4,000. Again, be as careful as you want to be, but I hope you can worry a little less about the worst case scenarios.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[twowhat?]

You are misunderstanding the statistics. Your risk of infection after vaccination is actually much less than even 1 in 1000.

Here is an explanation:

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...explained.html

Here is another explanation. Part of the problem is that you are not considering the "attack rate" and, fortunately, the attack rate gets lower as vaccination increases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...075-X/fulltext

I’m perfectly accepting of you taking precautions and masking as long as you want, but your risk of hospitalization is no where near 1 in 20. That’s a misunderstanding of the numbers and math involved. I didn’t read previous posters links with explanations. They’re probably better than mine, but in simplistic terms the vaccine reduces your existing risk by 95%. So, hypothetically, if your risk of hospitalization was 1 in 20 without the vaccine, it’s now 95% lower than that. So 5% of 5% or 1 in 400. But even that is conditional on you getting infected which is much lower now that you and many around you are vaccinated. So if you have a 10% chance of getting infected (I think that’s really high honestly now that community rates are much lower), you have a (.10)*(1/400) chance of getting infected and being hospitalized. That’s equal to 1 in 4,000. Again, be as careful as you want to be, but I hope you can worry a little less about the worst case scenarios.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

YES you're both totally right and thank you for setting me straight!! I completely failed to think through the denominator and both of those articles are great! It does make me feel better. Though it doesn't change me wanting to mask in crowds at Disneyland.

[SnuggleBuggles]

YES you're both totally right and thank you for setting me straight!! I completely failed to think through the denominator and both of those articles are great! It does make me feel better. Though it doesn't change me wanting to mask in crowds at Disneyland.

I understand. We have been really careful but now that we’re vaccinated I’m willing to do a lot. Socialize with friends indoors? Heck yeah. But, we went to a crowded outdoor place and no one had masks and it was just barely in my comfort zone. It was just so crowded. But, I’m not really interested in wearing a mask anymore.


Sent from my iPhone using Baby Bargains