I think if you can afford to front cc cost and are very certain you'll be able to get a refund it'd be worth the peace of mind. I'm with PPs that this might be very smart todo I was relaying your question to DH this morning - he had been talking to a friend of ours yesterday who was to leave for Belgium today and had his flight canceled. He can only rebook over the phone and hasn't been able to reach anyone. He's running out of time to make it there for the event. That would be my one concern with your plan, somehow you end up in phone/rebooking/delay hell and miss the window for getting on our getting a refund on one of the flights- kwim? But maybe you're willing to EOD pay the extra 1500 to make it even if you don't get a refund on the first flight if it ends up getting rescheduled?
We had a flight for our upcoming trip canceled recently. Fortunately they gave us a ton of notice and were willing to change our itinerary to a more expensive flight into a different airport entirely (4 hours away from the original airport, we live between them) without the regular change fees. We didn't care about the arrival airport as it's the return for our flight but it would have sucked if it had been our destination, start of our vacation instead of the end.
~ Dawn
Our little monkey (4/2011) & his early holiday present 12/12