College Institutional Priorities

[westwoodmom04]

I’ve read it’s more of a gradual decline than a cliff and that at the lowest point, the college age domestic population will be the same as 2013, better than now but still significantly worse than we were teens ourselves. Also, international kids make up a growing proportion of the applicant pool. One of the things I was shocked to learn this cycle is that some of the T20 schools are 20 percent to 30 percent international students (the overwhelming majority of which are full pay). if the most schools have this spigot to increase, there may not be much relief.

[AnnieW625]

I’ve read it’s more of a gradual decline than a cliff and that at the lowest point, the college age domestic population will be the same as 2013, better than now but still significantly worse than we were teens ourselves. Also, international kids make up a growing proportion of the applicant pool. One of the things I was shocked to learn this cycle is that some of the T20 schools are 20 percent to 30 percent international students (the overwhelming majority of which are full pay). if the most schools have this spigot to increase, there may not be much relief.

Yep….it is almost worse than the out of state enrollment phenomenon that has been going on with the UC schools (especially Cal and UCLA, and more recently UCSD, and UCI) for the last 20 years. The UC system likes the international/out of state students because they can charge them double or triple the in state rate and pad their wallets that way. I wish their were more rules about this but there aren’t. My local UC admits the most or second most California residents yearly (Merced is the other school) but people don’t want to move to my area because it isn’t LA, San Diego, or Berkeley and somehow even though it is just as suburban as Irvine, but still it isn’t nearly as cool as Irvine and has about the same amount of night life….zero, but for some reason Irvine is now a seller UC school.


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[georgiegirl]

That’s what I keep telling DH and DD. She’s going to apply to a bunch of top schools, and I hope that full pay geographic diversity will help in her case. As I told DH yesterday, DD is better off than if she lived in CA or NJ or PA (or most states), but not as good as if she lived in North Dakota or Wyoming. I jokingly suggested she should get a summer job detasseling corn to play up the rural Iowa angle


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[StantonHyde]

We have a great community college where students can get their general studies done and then transfer to the state flagship if they have good grades. The community college is less expensive than the flagship--even with the 50% tuition reduction we get as employees at the flaghship--and the classes are smaller. I encourage my employees who did not pursue college right after HS to look at the community college.

FWIW--my kids did not chase unicorns. I made sure they took AP/honors/IB classes as appropriate. (nobody was taking AP calculus) They had to volunteer and participate in an activity/club. My kids are not into sports. They needed tutors for math and science classes. They worked with a tutor for the ACT. Older DS did ok, younger DS has my testing capabilities, poor kid. I told them they had to do these things so that they would have choices of where to go to school. I wanted them to go out of state. For younger DS, as a trans kid, it is vital that he leaves this state. They know that if they try it and don't like it, they can come home and go to the state flagship. (they both got in there) We did the 3 safety, 3 middle, 2-3 reach approach. I was very realistic about their chances. I made sure they applied to buyers and sellers. We did ok.

Older DS took AP classes in English and history and honors math/science (but not AP). He was active in student government, played JV tennis, was in a couple of plays, did volunteer work, and worked one summer. He did get into some schools for engineering and at others for Environmental Science. He applied to 10 schools and got into 7 of them. We met with an advisor at the state flagship to go over the engineering requirements and he realized he didn't want to just do math and science,. So he ended up at Cal Poly SLO in City/Regional Planning which is a great major for him. It's good for him to go out of state and we are able to afford it. Younger DS has taken some AP and some IB. Doesn't have as good a GPA as older DS. He has volunteer tutored adult ESL students for 2 years, he worked over the summers, and he started his own club. He applied to 10 schools for Anthropology and got into 8 of them. We are deciding between University of Vermont and University of Maryland. He got a good scholarship for Vermont. There are schools he got into that didn't give him any merit money and they are now off the table.

[nfceagles]

We have a great community college where students can get their general studies done and then transfer to the state flagship if they have good grades. The community college is less expensive than the flagship--even with the 50% tuition reduction we get as employees at the flaghship--and the classes are smaller. I encourage my employees who did not pursue college right after HS to look at the community college.

FWIW--my kids did not chase unicorns. I made sure they took AP/honors/IB classes as appropriate. (nobody was taking AP calculus) They had to volunteer and participate in an activity/club. My kids are not into sports. They needed tutors for math and science classes. They worked with a tutor for the ACT. Older DS did ok, younger DS has my testing capabilities, poor kid. I told them they had to do these things so that they would have choices of where to go to school. I wanted them to go out of state. For younger DS, as a trans kid, it is vital that he leaves this state. They know that if they try it and don't like it, they can come home and go to the state flagship. (they both got in there) We did the 3 safety, 3 middle, 2-3 reach approach. I was very realistic about their chances. I made sure they applied to buyers and sellers. We did ok.

Older DS took AP classes in English and history and honors math/science (but not AP). He was active in student government, played JV tennis, was in a couple of plays, did volunteer work, and worked one summer. He did get into some schools for engineering and at others for Environmental Science. He applied to 10 schools and got into 7 of them. We met with an advisor at the state flagship to go over the engineering requirements and he realized he didn't want to just do math and science,. So he ended up at Cal Poly SLO in City/Regional Planning which is a great major for him. It's good for him to go out of state and we are able to afford it. Younger DS has taken some AP and some IB. Doesn't have as good a GPA as older DS. He has volunteer tutored adult ESL students for 2 years, he worked over the summers, and he started his own club. He applied to 10 schools for Anthropology and got into 8 of them. We are deciding between University of Vermont and University of Maryland. He got a good scholarship for Vermont. There are schools he got into that didn't give him any merit money and they are now off the table.

We did an admitted student day at UMD recently and really liked it. DS had a couple other schools higher on his wish list come through so he’s likely not going there, but I was impressed and would have been happy to have him there.


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[StantonHyde]

We did an admitted student day at UMD recently and really liked it. DS had a couple other schools higher on his wish list come through so he’s likely not going there, but I was impressed and would have been happy to have him there.


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We toured it last spring and DS liked it. We are going to an admitted student day at Vermont because we didn't tour that one last spring. Maryland would be much easier to fly in and out of-bonus. Maryland is also more diverse, which is important to DS. They both have good anthropology departments but Vermont is much more proactive in getting its students internships and research opportunities. *I* would love Vermont but DS is not outdoorsy like me. I have a feeling he will choose Maryland.

[essnce629]

So basically that confirms that it's all a crapshoot. Just do your best in hs but don't go insane trying to create a resume that is geared to certain schools since you have no idea what buckets they are currently trying to fill. There are countless good universities in the country and my family is going to opt out of stressing.

Basically yes! Find a school that fits your child's academic performance and your family's finances, not the other way around. Don't tailor your whole entire high school career to try and fit into the box of what you think a selective school wants, because that changes annually. Or just opt out of the rat race completely by not even bothering to apply to super selective schools with acceptance rates under 35%.

With boys going to college at such a lower rate than girls, this will make admissions so much easier for boys.

Yes, especially at small liberal arts colleges where the ratio is already 60% female, 40% male at the majority of schools. DS1's school is 56% female, 44% male.

One of the things I was shocked to learn this cycle is that some of the T20 schools are 20 percent to 30 percent international students (the overwhelming majority of which are full pay). if the most schools have this spigot to increase, there may not be much relief.

The T20 and T50 schools will not be affected by the enrollment cliff. They will still be popular and will continue having way more applicants than seats. Most international students gravitate towards these well known Seller schools, so it won't help the lesser known private and regional schools that don't have the international brand recognition and typically have as little as 0.5-5% of their class hailing from out of the country.

Yep….it is almost worse than the out of state enrollment phenomenon that has been going on with the UC schools (especially Cal and UCLA, and more recently UCSD, and UCI) for the last 20 years. The UC system likes the international/out of state students because they can charge them double or triple the in state rate and pad their wallets that way. I wish their were more rules about this but there aren’t.

The UCs agreed to cap nonresident enrollment (so out of state and international students) at 18% by the 2026-2027 school year. The max it has ever been is around 26%. Berkeley, UCLA and UCSD kept their nonresident enrollment at about 23% for the past few years (the current cap). This past fall, the freshman class at Berkeley was 79% CA students, so 21% nonresident.

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[essnce629]

We are deciding between University of Vermont and University of Maryland. He got a good scholarship for Vermont. There are schools he got into that didn't give him any merit money and they are now off the table.

This makes sense since Vermont is the one state that is already suffering from the enrollment cliff. The state is 93.6% white and because whites have the lowest birth rate and lowest fertility rate, Vermont is not increasing it's population and less than 50% of Vermont students matriculate to college. So it's in-state enrollment is dwindling, but it's making up for it with it's out of state enrollment and tuition discounts (merit aid).


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[AnnieW625]

…….

The UCs agreed to cap nonresident enrollment (so out of state and international students) at 18% by the 2026-2027 school year. The max it has ever been is around 26%. Berkeley, UCLA and UCSD kept their nonresident enrollment at about 23% for the past few years (the current cap). This past fall, the freshman class at Berkeley was 79% CA students, so 21% nonresident.

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Thanks for the data. Although I wish this article had the number of applicants and the number of students admitted for each category it does back up my statement that UC Merced, and UC Riverside admit the most California applicants. UC Santa Cruz admitted the most out of state students last year. Merced, Riverside, and Santa Cruz for the international students (but they probably had way less applicants as well).


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[StantonHyde]

This makes sense since Vermont is the one state that is already suffering from the enrollment cliff. The state is 93.6% white and because whites have the lowest birth rate and lowest fertility rate, Vermont is not increasing it's population and less than 50% of Vermont students matriculate to college. So it's in-state enrollment is dwindling, but it's making up for it with it's out of state enrollment and tuition discounts (merit aid).


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He just got notice from George Washington--got in with a Presidential scholarship. So now it's in the ballpark. Interesting that American offered no money but GW did.